I realized something today (OFMD meta impending)
Ed’s whole plan in the beginning, to escape from the Spanish. Before the lighthouse fuckery. It would have worked. He got it right.
See, here’s the thing. The official DATE of the full moon isn’t necessarily the day before the night it falls on. It’s the “day” as calculated from midnight to midnight that the moment the peak of lunar fullness is achieved occurs. Doesn’t matter if that’s two seconds after midnight, if it’s *after midnight*, the calendar lists the full moon as being the next day.
So officially, the full moon can be on September 2nd, but at the same time it can, for all practical purposes – like, y'know, knowing when the spring tide is (that’s “spring” as in “springy” not as in the season, by the way; the tide that has the most variation between high and low, due to the combined effects of lunar and solar gravity at the full and new moon) – occur on the night following September 1st, no matter which side of midnight the true peak of it happens to fall.
We know that Ed is a brilliant sailor. The most brilliant sailor Izzy’s ever met, in Izzy’s own words even as Izzy’s trying to insult him, he still has to admit that. So… what makes more sense? That a brilliant sailor who can read the coming weather in the clouds and all that would miss noticing for an entire six months that all the spring tides are a day off, because he forgot it’s a leap year? OR that he knows exactly when the spring tide will occur, but he just… doesn’t sail by the calendar. Because the lunar cycle doesn’t match up with the calendar very neatly, so what use does the calendar have in knowing what to expect from the tides, when you could just keep track of the moon instead? It’s implied that he’s at best only partially literate – he can’t write, he can perhaps read a bit, but probably not very well. He certainly never got a formal education about things like calendars and letters, but he never really needed that in order to get very very good at what he’s very very good at – he’s certainly not unintelligent, just uneducated.
He had the plan right, in every way that mattered, except in being able to explain it flawlessly to those who DO have an education about shit like calendars, but have never thought about things like the midnight-to-midnight delineation of what counts officially as a “day” in a practical light – they don’t know to take it into account, and Ed doesn’t know to point it out. Look who it is who says he’s wrong – it’s Izzy, who’s not definitely literate but is implied to be able to read better than Ed can at least, and then Lucius, who is literally a professional scribe, backs Izzy up – Lucius most definitely can read a calendar. Aside from Stede, who’s currently both recovering from being hanged and stabbed and also definitely having some very complicated and overwhelming feelings of the Gay Awakening sort and is thus quite understandably intellectually useless at the moment, Lucius is the only one aboard definitely confirmed to be able to read, and Izzy is implied to be able to (and I’d argue that having him so confidently correct Ed’s mistake about the date is further evidence that he IS literate, that he got more of a formal education at some point).
Ed, though. He’s aware he’s not educated; he’s a smart man, he knows he’s never had certain opportunities that others have been granted. He’s not ignorant of his ignorance of that realm. He knows that Izzy, and Lucius, have had access to knowledge that he’s never had. And he feels like that makes them qualified to correct him. Even though he’s RIGHT. They’re also right, in their own way – it IS the 1st, the official date of the full moon IS the 2nd. But they’re wrong, because the date isn’t what matters. The tide is what matters, and Ed may not always get the calendar, that he can’t read without a struggle, quite right but he knows the tide. He knows, but he also wavers. He doesn’t trust himself enough in the face of two educated men telling him he’s wrong; it’s enough that he doubts himself. He’s also a traumatized man, who grew up being told over and over that he’s just not those kind of people. He realizes he did make a mistake, it’s not the 2nd, it was a leap year. He forgot to account for a leap year when he was keeping track of what the date was, all this time. And because he’s, frankly, a bit shit at emotional regulation… well, as far as he can figure in the moment, if he made that mistake then they must also be right that the full moon is tomorrow, he’s fucked the whole thing up, they won’t have a spring tide to make the plan work.
But he was right. In all the ways that functionally mattered. If Izzy could’ve just shut his mouth and trusted that the most brilliant sailor he’d ever met would know the fuck when the spring tide will occur even if he mucked up a tiny, insignificant detail about the calendar, the plan would’ve worked.
I’m having a lot of feelings about this.